บทวิจารณ์รายวันของสารกำจัดศัตรูพืช15มิถุนายน: ความเสี่ยงทางการเมืองแสดงสัญญาณของการผ่อนคลาย

The pesticide market remained generally weak in sentiment, with prices fluctuating and diverging across products. Transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand, while the cost-upside logic may slow as geopolitical tensions ease.

Some products still received support from short-term supply-demand mismatches. However, due to transmission issues across the industrial chain, high prices continued to trigger negative feedback from downstream buyers. The market is currently waiting to see whether end-user demand can provide further support.

In the international market, expectations remain for stronger trade flows toward China. However, the actual strength of overseas demand will depend more on seasonal demand patterns in destination markets and the stocking willingness of international traders. Overall, this still provides medium- to long-term positive support for market sentiment.

In the short term, tensions in the Middle East have shown signs of easing, as the United States and Iran have reportedly reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding. The geopolitical risk premium has fallen sharply. However, the market is still watching whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can be substantially restored. Meanwhile, supply disruptions in the petrochemical value chain remain difficult to reverse in the short term. Cost-driven momentum may slow, but bottom support is likely to remain.

Overall, market participants remain cautious. Price increases in some upstream products are still facing transmission resistance downstream, upward momentum has slowed, and the wait-and-see atmosphere remains evident. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical sentiment, export strength, and seasonal demand.

Domestic Mainstream Glyphosate Market Prices:
Domestic Mainstream Glufosinate Market Prices:
Domestic Mainstream Yellow Phosphorus Market Prices:

Market Analysis

Herbicides

The herbicide market atmosphere continued to weaken. As the spring planting peak season comes to an end, demand has gradually softened. Earlier inventory accumulation among traders has led to some low-price selling, while cost increases caused by geopolitical risks remain present. However, insufficient downstream demand has made it difficult to generate new market momentum.

In the United States, elemental phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides have been listed as critical defense materials under the Defense Production Act, requiring priority protection of domestic supply. This move continues to provide some support to the Chinese domestic market.

Overall, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing based on rigid demand. As seasonal demand support weakens in the short term, market sentiment continues to soften. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether export conditions improve and how geopolitical sentiment evolves.

Yellow Phosphorus

The yellow phosphorus market remained in a high-level tug-of-war, with trading sentiment temporarily stable and upstream producers still showing a strong willingness to hold prices.

At present, upstream factory inventory pressure is limited. Strong guidance prices from yellow phosphorus producers continue to support the market, while upstream companies are generally holding firm and reluctant to sell. Demand-side stocking sentiment still exists, providing relatively strong short-term price support.

However, downstream products remain limited in their ability to follow price increases. The transmission of cost pressure remains constrained. In addition, as Middle East geopolitical tensions ease, the decline in sulfur prices has weakened the substitution premium of thermal-process phosphoric acid to some extent. The market is expected to remain at high levels for now while waiting for downstream procurement to recover.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides

• 95% Nicosulfuron fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 160,000/mt.
• 97% Cyhalofop-butyl fell by RMB 1,000 to RMB 105,000/mt.
• 96% Bispyribac-sodium fell by RMB 10,000 to RMB 220,000/mt.

Insecticides

• 96% Lambda-cyhalothrin fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 110,000/mt.
• 96% Bifenthrin fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 128,000/mt.
• 97% Pymetrozine fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 106,000/mt.
• 95% Abamectin technical powder fell by RMB 20,000 to RMB 410,000/mt.
• 70% Emamectin benzoate fell by RMB 10,000 to RMB 580,000/mt.
• 97% Chlorpyrifos fell by RMB 1,000 to RMB 40,000/mt.
• 90% Propargite fell by RMB 4,000 to RMB 56,000/mt.
• 96% Chlorantraniliprole fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 230,000/mt.

Fungicides

• 95% Epoxiconazole fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 245,000/mt.
• 95% Flusilazole fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 300,000/mt.
• 96% Prochloraz fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 49,000/mt.
• 98% Azoxystrobin fell by RMB 1,000 to RMB 134,000/mt.
• 97% Trifloxystrobin fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 185,000/mt.